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Chances of Winning a DUI Case in Ontario

Every year in Ontario, countless individuals face the repercussions of a DUI charge. The penalties can be intense, ranging from fines, licence suspensions to even time in jail. With such consequences looming, many find themselves questioning their likelihood of a successful defence against these charges.

If you’ve recently been charged with DUI, you’re not alone in seeking clarity. And while each case is inherently unique, there’s good news. Recent data from Statistics Canada indicates that a significant portion of DUI cases heard in Ontario criminal courts end in a verdict other than guilty.

By the Numbers: DUI Cases in Ontario

Before diving into the factors that can influence the outcome of a DUI case, let’s first take a snapshot of the recent statistics:

  • According to recent data, approximately 60% of DUI cases in Ontario criminal courts end in either a “not guilty” verdict or the charges are withdrawn.
  • There’s been a noticeable decline in the number of DUI cases in the Ontario court system recently. Specifically, cases dropped from 22,302 in the fiscal year of 2019/2020 to 14,914 in 2020/2021.

Data from the past six fiscal years paints a varying picture:

  • From 2015-2016 to 2019-2020, guilty verdict percentages ranged between 47.10% to 49.17%.
  • In 2020-2021, there was a shift. Guilty verdicts decreased to 37.55%, while stayed or withdrawn cases jumped to 60.68%.

While these statistics show promise, it’s essential to remember they don’t guarantee an outcome. A plethora of factors play into the results of each case.

Key Factors Influencing the Outcome of a DUI Case

The statistics are hopeful, but it’s critical to understand the variables at play:

  1. Evidence Strength: Solid evidence against you can be damning. But if there are inconsistencies, it might be possible to challenge the charges effectively.
  2. Legal Representation: A proficient DUI lawyer can be a game-changer. They can pinpoint gaps in the prosecution’s case, challenge evidence legitimacy, and advocate on your behalf in court.
  3. Circumstances of the Arrest: The specifics of how and why you were arrested, such as any potential rights violations, can sway a case’s outcome.
  4. Prior Convictions: A history of DUI can influence your chances, while first-time offenders might have a better shot at a favourable outcome.
  5. Mitigating Factors: Elements like a medical emergency during the arrest or malfunctioning equipment can play in your favour.

The Potential to Reduce a DUI to Careless Driving

For many, an ideal outcome would be having a DUI charge reduced to something less severe. A common question pertains to the possibility of having a DUI charge minimized to careless driving—a violation under the Highway Traffic Act rather than a criminal offence.

While not guaranteed, this reduction may be achievable. Factors that bolster the chances include a pristine driving record, lack of prior DUI convictions, and a low BAC at the arrest time. The skill of your DUI lawyer also factors in, as they must present compelling arguments and negotiate effectively.

Weighing the Decision to Contest a DUI Charge

Deciding to challenge a DUI charge isn’t a light decision. The ramifications of a DUI conviction in Ontario are substantial, encompassing a criminal record, hefty fines, licence suspension, and potential jail time.

A robust defence can challenge the evidence, question police conduct, and potentially lead to plea deals, possibly resulting in reduced or withdrawn charges. Having an experienced DUI lawyer aids this process, enhancing the chance to circumvent a criminal record and its subsequent ramifications.

However, challenges come with their own set of strains—time, effort, resources—and outcomes are never certain. Open dialogue with your DUI lawyer is paramount to understanding your unique circumstances and weighing the outcomes of challenging the charge.


Facing a DUI charge in Ontario is undeniably stressful, and the road ahead can seem unclear. However, armed with the right knowledge and backed by the expertise of a skilled lawyer, the journey can become much more navigable. While statistics and general factors provide some perspective, every case has its unique intricacies that demand specialized attention.

Seek Expert Guidance

When you’re up against something as significant as a DUI charge, you want the best representation by your side. At Karapancev Law, our experienced DUI lawyers in Toronto understand the complexities of the Ontario legal system. We’ve successfully navigated countless cases, leveraging deep insights, strategic planning, and a passion for defending our clients’ rights.

Don’t leave your future to chance. Let Karapancev Law guide you through the process, challenge evidence, and maximize your chances of a favourable outcome. Contact us today to get a personalized assessment of your case and discover how we can be your beacon during these trying times.

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Alexander Karapancev

Alexander Karapancev is a Toronto criminal lawyer practicing throughout the province of Ontario. He regularly serves as lead trial counsel on serious and complex criminal cases. He is the founder of Karapancev Law, a law firm representing clients facing criminal charges, regulatory offences, and professional discipline proceedings.

Mr. Karapancev has acted as counsel in hundreds of cases throughout the province of Ontario, regularly representing clients at trials, applications, bail hearings and preliminary inquiries. He is regularly retained to defend individuals charged with serious allegations of fraud, drug trafficking, DUI offences, domestic assault, and sexual assault. Prior to founding his law firm, Mr. Karapancev practiced criminal defence at a boutique Toronto law firm and also served as a per diem Crown prosecutor.

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